The New Energy Chessboard

A lot of history turns on small things.

Not small in impact. Small in shape.

A stirrup looks like a footnote. Yet it helped riders stay stable. Stable riders could fight better. Better cavalry changed war. War changed land, taxes, and who ruled. That chain did not need a rocket. It needed a simple loop of metal, used well.

The same pattern keeps returning. A modest tool makes something cheaper, safer, or faster. That shift moves the bottleneck. The new bottleneck decides who wins. Institutions then bend around the bottleneck. Over time, power moves toward the place that scales the new system best.

This helps explain what electrification does today.

A simple rule: follow the bottleneck

When an old system runs, it has a few “pinch points.” Those pinch points decide who can say “yes” and who must accept “no.”

In the oil age, the pinch points sat in oil fields, pipelines, and shipping routes. If you controlled supply, you could influence price. If you influenced price, you could influence politics.

In the electricity age, the pinch points move. They sit in factories, supply chains, and materials processing. They also sit in grid equipment and software that keeps everything stable. Electricity does not care about borders. Factories and supply chains often do.

So the game changes. Oil power comes from what sits underground. Electricity power comes from what people can build, copy, and scale.

Five “small tech” examples that changed the world

Electrification may feel new. Yet the pattern feels old. Here are five simple technologies that show how a small tool can reshape society.

Coinage: trust in your pocket

Coins let strangers trade without knowing each other. A stamp said, “This has value.” That made markets larger. It made taxes easier. It made armies easier to pay. States that could enforce coin standards gained strength.

A tiny disc helped build large systems.

The printing press: ideas that travel faster than guards

Before printing, copying books took long hours. After printing, words could multiply. That changed religion, science, and politics. New groups could organise. Old authorities lost control of the story.

When ideas move cheaply, power starts to move too.

Container shipping: the steel box that rewired the planet

A shipping container looks boring. Yet it makes loading fast and predictable. It cuts costs. It lets factories spread across countries. It moves whole industries toward ports and supply chains that work best.

A box changed where the world makes things.

Public-key cryptography: trust that runs on maths

This sounds complex, yet the idea stays simple. Two people can lock a message so only the right person can open it. They can do that over an open network. That makes online banking, secure payments, and safe logins possible.

When trust becomes “programmable,” money and work can travel further.

The stirrup: stability that changes war

The stirrup makes riding steadier. Steadier riding supports new tactics and more force on horseback. That pushes societies to fund and organise those fighters. That can change land ownership and class structures.

A small loop changes the economics of violence.

Electrification fits the same pattern

Now we return to electricity.

Oil has limits. It comes from certain places. It travels through pipes and chokepoints. It stays scarce by nature.

Electricity works differently. Many energy sources can produce it. Then machines use it. Those machines improve every year. Factories can build more of them. More factories usually means lower costs. Lower costs usually means more buyers. That loop can run fast.

So electrification does not only swap fuel. It changes the whole system.

Why vehicles matter so much

Most oil use links to transport. Cars, buses, trucks, ships. So when transport shifts away from oil, oil demand loses its strongest support.

Electric car sales have risen fast. The International Energy Agency reports more than 17 million electric cars sold in 2024. It also reports China selling more than 11 million, with electric cars near half of all new car sales there (International Energy Agency, 2025).

That kind of change creates a new problem for oil-based states. It also creates a new advantage for manufacturing states.

The new power plays: factories, materials, and scale

If the world runs on electric machines, then the key question changes.

Who can build the machines?

Not just cars. Batteries. Motors. Power electronics. Transformers. Charging stations. Grid equipment. The software that keeps electricity stable.

In the oil era, a country could gain power by drilling. In the electricity era, a country can gain power by building. Building scales. Building improves. Building can get cheaper each year.

That looks like an “infinite game.” Oil looks like a “finite game.” Oil runs out.

Manufacturing can keep compounding.

Why China keeps showing up in the story

China’s advantage comes from scale and speed. It sells a lot of electric vehicles. It makes a large share of them. It also sits deep in many supply chains that support electrification.

The International Energy Agency reports China as the main global hub for electric car manufacturing, and it reports China producing more than 70% of electric cars in 2024 (International Energy Agency, 2025). This does not mean no one else can compete. It does mean catching up requires time, capital, and coordinated action.

In the language of this article, China sits near the new bottlenecks.

Why oil states struggle to pivot quickly

Some countries still rely heavily on oil income. That income pays for public jobs, subsidies, and stability. If oil prices fall or demand slows, budgets tighten. Tight budgets make big transitions harder.

Diversification plans often target tourism, finance, and big prestige projects. Those can help. Yet electrification rewards industrial depth: factories, engineers, suppliers, and export systems. Building that depth takes time. Time shrinks when revenue feels less secure.

So the problem often comes from timing, not effort.

What this means for everyday life

This may sound like high geopolitics. Yet it touches daily choices.

• You may see cheaper electric cars, buses, and scooters.

• You may see more charging and more grid upgrades.

• You may see new jobs in batteries, software, and power systems.

• You may also see stress in places that depend on oil money.

When the bottleneck moves, the world’s attention follows.

The one question that keeps working

If you want a simple way to think, use this question.

Where did the bottleneck move, and who can scale it?

Coinage moved trust into a stamp. Printing moved persuasion into machines. Containers moved production toward ports and supply chains. Cryptography moved trust into maths.

Now electrification moves power toward the people who can manufacture the new system and deploy it fast.

That does not settle every detail of the future. It does give you a strong compass.

Read Stephen Bray's academic paper here.