How do you avoid getting blindsided by the next downturn and learn to think like smart money?
Ignore the Cycle, Pay the Price
Every boom feels permanent.
Every crash feels like the end.
And every new investor thinks they’ll be the exception.
But there are no exceptions.
Just cycles, repeating, reshaping, and revealing who’s actually paying attention.
Markets rise.
They fall.
They reset.
They rise again.
This isn’t opinion. It’s pattern.
And unless you understand it, you’re just a passenger on someone else’s ride.
Phase One: Accumulation. When Fear Has Cleared the Field
This is when the air still smells of failure.
News is bleak. Confidence is gone. Everyone else has packed up and left.
That’s the opportunity.
Valuations are low.
Volume is thin.
Only the brave are buying.
Not because it feels good. Because it’s the right time.
This is when the foundations of future wealth are laid — quietly, patiently, almost invisibly.
Phase Two: Markup. When Everyone Wants a Piece
Optimism returns.
Slowly at first, then all at once.
You hear phrases like:
“The market’s back.”
“You can’t lose money in tech.”
“Everyone’s buying crypto again.”
And suddenly everyone’s a financial guru.
This is not a victory parade. It’s a warning sign.
This is when the pros begin to exit.
Not with noise. With grace.
They take profits while the crowd is still cheering.
Phase Three: Distribution — When It Looks Calm But Isn’t
Prices flatten.
But enthusiasm doesn’t.
People hold.
People cheer.
People ignore the signs.
Behind the scenes?
Founders are selling.
Insiders are liquidating.
Volume is high, but it’s all transfer, from pros to the unsuspecting.
This is the phase where the clever look silly… and the overconfident look rich.
Just before it all turns.
Phase Four: Markdown — When the Party’s Over
The sell-off begins.
One sharp drop. Then another. Then the floor disappears.
People panic.
Liquidity vanishes.
News headlines scream.
This is the cleansing fire.
The moment people sell at a loss and swear never to return.
But this is also where the new cycle begins.
Because while most people are trying to escape the building…
The smart money is quietly moving back in.
Cycles Are How the Market Sorts Memory from Wisdom
It’s not about timing the exact top or bottom.
It’s about:
Knowing where you are.
Acting with restraint.
Resisting euphoria.
Embracing clarity.
If you ignore the cycle, you pay the price.
If you learn the rhythm, you get to play another round.
This isn’t just about markets.
There are longer waves:
Economic cycles.
Generational tides.
Civilisational arcs.
But everything begins here.
This is your training ground.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Can’t I just buy and hold forever?
Yes, if you’ve picked the right asset, at the right valuation, and can stomach wild swings without panic. Most can’t.
Q: When should I exit?
When others are intoxicated with confidence and you’re already quietly content with your gains.
Q: What if I missed the bottom?
It doesn’t matter. The bottom is a moment. The margin is in the behaviour.
Q: What if I did everything wrong last time?
Then you’re in the best position of all: you’ve learned. Now it’s time to apply.
Start recognising where you are and acting accordingly.
Don’t chase hype. Don’t freeze in fear.
Use the FAQs as a mental compass.
Map your current phase.
And then adjust.
Because surviving the cycle isn’t just about profit — it’s about wisdom, timing, and long-term resilience.
And if you can’t ride this wave, you’re not ready for the sea ahead.
Stephen Bray blends lived experience, hard-won lessons, and a quiet sense of humour to help leaders move forward. Read more here.
© 2025 Stephen Bray. Patterns in life and business, simply told.