Flying Blind: The Risk of Running a Business Without a Plan

My father-in-law navigated a Wellington bomber during the war. On days when there wasn’t much happening, he and the pilot would sit down and play through scenarios. What if the plane was hit here? What if it started to lose altitude? What if an engine failed?

They didn’t leave anything to chance. They made a checklist. A simple plan to follow, if the worst ever happened.

One day, it did.

The plane was hit by shrapnel. It started to drop. Thousands of feet lost in seconds.

The pilot and my father-in-law didn’t panic. They worked through the checklist. By the sixth item, they stabilised the Wellington and brought it safely home.

On the day they made that list, the sun was shining. The other crews were drinking beer. Laughing, joking, enjoying the calm.

But calm doesn’t last forever.

In that war, 44% of aircrew were killed in action. Most of them were 23 years old.

That checklist saved their lives.

Now, what’s that got to do with your family business?

A lot, actually.

1. Contingency Plans Are Your Checklist

Most family businesses don’t think about what happens if things go wrong. What if the market shifts? What if a key supplier pulls out? What if your top employee leaves?

Without a plan, panic takes over. Decisions are made on impulse. And just like a plane dropping from the sky, it’s hard to recover.

But with a plan? You’ve got options. You stay calm. You keep control. Just like that checklist saved the bomber, a good contingency plan can save your business.

2. Don’t Fly Blind — Know Your Numbers

Every pilot knows the altitude, airspeed, and fuel levels at all times. They’re never guessing.

In your family business, numbers are your instruments. Revenue, profit margins, customer retention. If you don’t know them, you’re flying blind. And when the turbulence hits, you’ll have no idea what to do.

Start tracking the key metrics that matter to your business. Understand them. Use them. They’re your guide to staying in control.

3. Learn From Those With Experience

That checklist didn’t come out of nowhere. It came from the experiences of pilots who’d faced those situations before. They shared what worked. What didn’t. What saved lives.

In your family business, don’t ignore the wisdom of those who’ve been there before. Your parents, uncles, or even mentors outside the family. They’ve seen what happens when things go wrong. Learn from their stories. Build your own checklist.

4. Tough Times Reveal Weak Links

When the bomber started to fall, every part of that plane had to hold together. A single failure could have been catastrophic.

In business, tough times reveal weaknesses. A lack of communication. A poorly managed department. A product line that’s underperforming.

Use calm periods to strengthen those links. Don’t wait for a crisis to see what’s holding you back.

5. The Right Mindset Is Your Foundation

When the bomber was falling, panic wasn’t an option. Staying calm and focused was the only way to survive.

In your family business, mindset matters. A scarcity mindset—focusing on what you don’t have—leads to bad decisions. But an abundance mindset—focusing on what you can achieve—keeps you moving forward.

Train yourself and your team to think this way. It’s not about ignoring risks; it’s about approaching them with confidence and clarity.

6. Preparation Feels Like Overkill Until It Isn’t

That sunny day when the checklist was made? It probably felt unnecessary. After all, nothing was going wrong.

But when the shrapnel hit, that preparation made all the difference.

In your family business, take time to prepare for scenarios you hope never happen. Succession planning, financial downturns, supply chain disruptions. It might feel like overkill. But when the crisis comes, you’ll be glad you did.

7. Enjoy the Calm, But Respect the Storm

The other crews were drinking beer, enjoying the sunshine. They didn’t see the point in planning for a future that might not happen.

In your family business, it’s easy to get comfortable when things are going well. But that’s the best time to plan for the storm. Because when it hits, you won’t have time to prepare.

Your family business is like that Wellington bomber. It’s carrying something precious: your legacy, your team, your future.

Make the checklist. Prepare for the worst. So when the shrapnel hits, you’re ready.